Recrutement d’un consultant individuel pour l’étude des impacts macroéconomiques du COVID-19 et implications pour la viabilité de la dette au Cap Vert

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

FOR AN INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANT

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK SENEGAL COUNTRY OFFICE (COSN) WEST AFRICA REGIONAL DEPARTMENT

 

Title of the assignment : “Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Implications for Debt Sustainability in Cabo Verde”

Brief description of the Assignment : The objective of the proposed consultancy is to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications for debt sustainability in Cabo Verde. More specifically, the study should provide an updated structural assessment of the COVID-19 impacts on the Cabo Verdean economy since the beginning of the pandemic to date. The study is expected to provide critical assessment of the implications of COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s fiscal consolidation path and identify alternative policy options for mitigating the debt overhang and high risk of debt distress.

Department issuing the request : West Africa Regional Department (RDGW)

Place of assignment : From country of residence of the Consultant

Duration of the assignment : 45 days non-consecutive days.

Tentative Date of commencement : 15^th November 2020

Deadline for applications : 30^th October 2020 at 17:00 (GMT)

Applications to be submitted to : Mr. Joel Daniel Muzima (j.muzima@afdb.org) with copy to Mr. José António da Graça Pinto (j.dagracapinto@afdb.org)

Any questions and requests for clarifications may be sent to : Mr. Joel Daniel Muzima (j.muzima@afdb.org)

Terms of Reference for : “Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19 and Implications for Debt Sustainability in Cabo Verde”

 

1. Introduction / Background :

The socio-economic challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic are high for Cabo Verde. Disruptions in global supply chains have negatively affected growth in tourism, trade, transport and manufacturing sectors. African Economic Outlook estimates indicate that Real GDP growth in 2020 for Cabo Verde is projected to contract from 5% to -4% in the baseline scenario. In the worst-case scenario, real GDP growth could fall to as low as -7% if the COVID-19 crisis prolongs beyond 2020. Total revenues are set to drop by Cabo Verdean Escudos – CVE 18 billion in 2020 (about USD 163.3 million, that is 9.3% of GDP). More than 80% of Cabo Verde’s state budget is comprised of essential spending on salaries, interest payments, inter-governmental transfers to municipalities, and social transfers. Potential adoption of austerity measures to rein public spending would be perceived as countercyclical and harmful to the incomes of the most vulnerable groups as the economy is already into a recession. In light of the above, Cabo Verde’s fiscal space for financing additional public spending is limited. This bears strong implications on sustainability as total public debt level is expected to rise above 145% of GDP by end-2020 up from 124.2% of GDP in 2019, reflecting both higher borrowing and a decline in nominal GDP.

2. Objectives of the Assignment :

The objective of the proposed consultancy is to assess the macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications for debt sustainability in Cabo Verde. More specifically, the study should provide an updated structural assessment of the COVID-19 impacts on the Cabo Verdean economy since the beginning of the pandemic to date. The study is expected to provide a critical assessment of the implications of COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s fiscal consolidation path and identify alternative policy options for mitigating the debt overhang and high risk of debt distress.

3. Main activities and deliverables :

The role of the consultant is to prepare a succinct report on the updated macroeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Cabo Verdean economy and its implications for debt sustainability. The various tasks of the consultant will include the following :

• Identify and collect all relevant data for the assessment of the macroeconomic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic in the Cabo Verdean economy over the past 9 months and its implications on debt sustainability. The source data will include the set of information to be collected from national statistical offices and relevant ministries covering 2020, and any forecasts where available, on national accounts (production and demand), Public Finance, Balance of Payments, External Trade (volume, price of main exports exported) and inflation; as well as eventual debt forecasts ;
• Assess and update on the macroeconomic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Cabo Verdan economy, placing greater emphasis on five transmission mechanisms: (i) Foreign Direct Investment; (ii) Commodity prices and trade; (iii) Travel and tourism industry; (iv) Financial and exchange rate markets; and (v) socio-economic impacts on gender, health, unemployment and poverty ;
• Assess the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and its implications on the realism of the country’s current fiscal consolidation path ;
• Discuss alternative policy options for creating additional fiscal space post-COVID-19 and thereby address the SDG 2030 agenda ;
• Propose alternative and sustainable policy options for debt restructuring programs¹, in the context of a Middle-Income Country (MIC) and Small Island Developing State (SIDS) such as Cabo Verde. These include: “Debt for nature”; “Multi-creditor debt swaps”; “Linking loan repayments to economic performance”; “countercyclical loans” “Exchanging debt for development” ;
• Perform structural impact simulations of the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters shock (e.g. the 2020 flooding) on the projected baseline debt levels for Cabo Verde ;
• Assess the likelihood of the country’s public debt to fall below the 70% of GDP threshold for MIC countries before 2025 and discuss the implications in terms of the optimal fiscal adjustment path and estimated debt-stabilizing primary balance ;
• UNDP (2015): “Financing for Development and Small Island Developing States: a Snapshot and Ways Forward.

4. Administration/reporting :

The selected Consultant is expected to work independently from his/her home country and report to the AfDB Country Economist in charge of Cabo Verde (Mr. Joel Daniel Muzima – email: j.muzima@afdb.org). Authoring the study is of the sole responsibility of the Consultant, but the AfDB team will provide all support required in terms of data collection and contacts of relevant stakeholders in the country.

5. Duration of the assignment :

The consultancy will be on a temporary basis for a period of 45 non-consecutive days and for a period of 2-month from November 15^th, 2020 to December 30^th, 2020.

6. Qualifications and Experience required :

• Education : Advanced university degree (minimum Masters degree) in Economics or any related field or discipline ;
• Work Experience : Relevant work experience of at least 10 years in economic policy analysis ;
• Languages : Fluency in oral and written English is essential ;
• Other Skills : Capacity to deliver output in a timely manner and ability to use relevant computer packages (especially proficiency in Microsoft Excel).

7. Selection criteria :

Proposals will be evaluated based on the below selection criteria :

1.	General  qualifications  and  adequacy  for  the  proposed	30
	Assignment
2.	Similar  experience  in  the  area  of  expertise  of  the	40
	Assignment as described in the Terms of Reference (and
	understanding of the Terms of Reference if required)
3.	Experience with the Bank or other international donors	20
4.	Language proficiency	5
5.	Knowledge of the Region (environment of the Assignment)	5
	if the Consultant will undertake the Assignment in a Member
	Country
Total		100 points

Only the proposals scoring of 70 points or above shall be considered for this assignment. All the consultants shall be ranked and the highest ranked Consultant will be selected for the said assignment if his/her fees are within budget limits.

8. Remuneration :

The estimated budget for this assignment is USD 20,000 (UA 14,388) lump-sum payment as follows :

• 30% upon submission of the first draft report ;

• 60% upon submission of the final draft report incorporating the comments of the country team and peer reviewers ;

• 10% upon submission of the final report cleared by the Director of Country Economics Department (ECCE).

Please attach an updated Curriculum vitae on the basis of the template below :

MODEL CURRICULUM VITAE – AFDB BAD PDF