Inscrivez-vous pour recevoir les annonces par mail

Avis de recrutement d’un consultant international pour le projet des sources des pressions inflationnistes au Soudan

Avis de recrutement d’un consultant international pour le projet des sources des pressions inflationnistes au Soudan

Publié : 

Categories : Avis de recrutement

Domaines : Comptabilité - Gestion - Audit - Gestion de projets

Regions : Soudan

Avis de recrutement d’un consultant international pour le projet des sources des pressions inflationnistes au Soudan

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Country Office of Sudan (COSD) 3rd Floor, Building No. 20, Block No. 10, Al-Emtidad East P.O. Box 644, Khartoum, Sudan Telephone: +249 (0) 15 6657330

The African Development Bank hereby invites International Individual Consultants to indicate their interest in the following assignment: “Preparation of a background paper and policy brief on the sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan.”

Background :

The Country Economics Department (ECCE) and Country Office of Sudan (COSD) of the African Development Bank is recruiting an individual consultant to support in preparing a background paper and policy brief on ‘Sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan’.

High inflation in any economy tends to adversely affect the cost of living, inequality, investment as well as economic growth. The need to reduce these adverse effects over the last century has culminated in many studies into the causes of inflation. The differences in arguments on the causes of inflation stem from differences in the best measure to control inflation as well as differences between developed and developing countries. Totonchi (2011) argued that, although inflation in developed economies is broadly attributed to growth of money supply, inflation in developing countries cannot be purely seen as a monetary phenomenon. However, there are many scholars who argue that inflation in developing countries is largely driven by structural factors (see: Taylor 1983; Sargent and Wallace 1984; Lim 1987; etc.).

The Government of Sudan used fiscal consolidation as the main policy tool for reducing reserve money growth and managed to keep inflation within one digit during the oil boom period (2000-2010). However, inflation became well-entrenched and persistent phenomenon in post-secession Sudan despite the Central Bank of Sudan adopting “Inflation targeting” as the key monetary policy framework for stabilizing the macroeconomy, containing labour costs, and eventually enhancing economic competitiveness. Authorities used both market and non-market-based instruments to tighten monetary policy and control inflation. In the recent years, Sudan has experienced a period of soaring and volatile inflation, coupled with successive decline in real GDP growth. In response to this, the Sudan’s transitional government embarked on bold fiscal, economic, and financial policy reforms in 2020, supported by the 2020 IMF Staff Monitored Program (SMP) to restore Sudan on an inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development path. The comprehensive policy reforms package focuses on exchange rate and monetary policy reforms and strong fiscal consolidation to strengthen macroeconomic stability and competitiveness. Despite this and other government policy initiatives, inflation in Sudan remains high at hyper-inflation levels. During 2018-2021, inflation averaged at 148.4%, partly on account of monetarization of deficit, exchange rate depreciation, removal of fuel subsidies and production and consumption disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and political instability. This emphasizes the need for a deep-dive analysis to understand the sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan and elaborate on possible practical policy options for managing inflation in the country.

Objective of the Assignment :

The objective of the assignment is to undertake research and prepare a background paper and a policy brief on ‘Sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan’. To achieve this objective, the Bank Group is seeking to recruit an individual consultant to undertake the assignment in line with the competencies summarized in Section V. Indicative outlines are presented in Annex 1, however, the consultant will prepare and submit an inception report elaborating on the objectives, proposed methodology, scope, timeline, and the outlines for the study in details.

The specific objectives of the assignment are to :

  1. Revisit the trends of inflation over the last 15-20 years and identify the key sources in order to understand the key drivers of inflation in Sudan ;
  2. Empirically estimate the contribution of external factors (e.g., international food and oil prices), structural constraints (supply side impediments), policy variables (e.g., fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy) ;
  3. Provide inflation projections to forecast how inflation is expected to evolve in the short-, medium-, and longer-terms ;
  4. Identify the channels through which food and non-food inflation has evolved in the last 15-20 years and estimate the magnitudes of their impact on overall inflation ;
  5. Review the experience of monetary policy compared to inflation targeting regimes in Sudan in comparison with low-income countries to investigate the effectiveness of different regimes to shocks ;
  6. Based on findings in bullet points (i) to (v), propose policy recommendations to mitigate inflation in Sudan.

Scope of Work :

The analysis for the proposed study will focus on the drivers of inflation in Sudan and cover a period of 15-20 years. The consultant will prepare both a technical background paper of not more than 35 pages (excluding preliminary pages, references, and annexes) that seeks to investigate the sources of inflation in Sudan (external factors, structural bottlenecks, policy variables, etc.), and a high-level policy brief of not more than 5 pages that precisely articulates the practical policy options for controlling inflation in Sudan, emanating from the background paper. More specifically, the Consultant will prepare two reports on the topic of ‘sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan’ (the background paper and the policy brief).

IV.Deliverables   
       
  Activity  Indicative 
      Timeline 
  Deliverable 1 (D1):  20th May 2022 
   •  Inception report on ‘Sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan’    
 Deliverable 2 (D2): 25th June 2022
   •  First draft of the entire report on ‘Sources of inflationary pressures in   
   Sudan’   
  Deliverable 3 (D3):  25th July 2022 
   •  Revised draft of the report (accommodating comments from the task team    
   and peer reviewers) and power point presentation of the entire report    
 Deliverable 4 (D4): 30th July 2022
   •  Presentation of revised draft of report to the Bank’s economists, Sudanese   
   government officials and other stakeholders   
  Deliverable 5 (D5):  20th August 
   •  Final draft of the report (accommodating comments from the task team,  2022 
   ECCE reviewers, country team and other stakeholders) and the final policy    
   brief    

It is expected that the successful consultant will commit an effort equivalent to 45 person days for the entire exercise during the period May 1, 2022, to August 30, 2022. The work will be carried out virtually.

Submission of a revised report following each review stage will need to be accompanied by a matrix of comments indicating the actions taken to address the comments. The consultant will undertake timely revisions of the report as and when comments are received from the core team, peer reviewers, country team, ECCE reviewers, and other stakeholders.

Desired Qualifications and Experience :

The successful individual consultant should be able to demonstrate the following academic qualifications and professional experience, at a minimum:

Academic qualification :

  • At least a master’s degree or its equivalent in a relevant field including Macroeconomics, Econometrics, Economics, Public Finance, Public Policy or related disciplines, and any other relevant field, with expertise in monetary policy, inflation and exchange rate analyses, macroeconomic policy reforms ;
  • PhD is an added advantage.

Experience :

  • At least 15 years of relevant professional and practical quantitative and qualitative research experience and report writing on policymaking in the industrial sector and on international trade issues ;
  • At least 3 years of experience working for an international organization. Experience with the African Development Bank will be an added advantage ;
  • Specific experience in relevant areas that include macroeconomics, monetary policy, inflation, exchange rate analyses ;
  • Experience of working with public sector, particularly in macroeconomic management and policy analysis, including in Sudan ;
  • Experience with preparing policy analysis and policy briefs, economic research, and macroeconomic modelling ;
  • Excellent report-writing skills ;
  • Ability to think critically and to analyze complex issues ;
  • Ability to undertake rigorous statistical analyses, and competency in use of standard software (Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint, and web tools) ;
  • Proven capacity to work in a team or independently, and to deliver outputs in a timely manner ;
  • Experience working in a multi-cultural environment, personal sensitivity and commitment to Bank Group values and ethics; and
  • English and French are the main languages of the Bank. For this assignment, English is required.

Reporting Requirements :

The successful consultant will work under the overall guidance of the Director for the Country Economics Department and direct supervision of the Lead Economist covering the Regional Department for East Africa. The Consultant will also work closely with the Country Economist covering Sudan and with other staff of the African Development Bank. To the extent needed, the Consultant may be in contact with other stakeholders working in the same or related areas, using interactive video or audio conferences. No travel is expected.

Remuneration :

A lump sum remuneration will be offered to the successful consultant for this assignment, to be paid in three equal installments at the submission of an acceptable inception report (Deliverable 1), at the submission of an acceptable first draft report (Deliverable 2) and when work is completed, that is, successful delivery of deliverables D3, D4, and D5 as described in section IV.

Submission of Expression of Interest :

Expressions of interest accompanied by an updated Curriculum Vitae (CV) must be received only by email to the addresses provided below no later than 24th April 2022, at 5:00 p.m. (Khartoum time) and specifically mentioning: International Consultant for the “Sources of Inflationary Pressures in Sudan”.

For the attention of :

Dr. Duncan O. Ouma – Email: d.ouma@afdb.org

Mr. Yousif Eltahir – Email : y.eltahir@afdb.org

African Development Bank – Country Office of Sudan (COSD) 3rd Floor, Building No. 20, Block No. 10, Al-Emtidad East P.O. Box 644, Khartoum, Sudan Telephone: +249 (0) 15 6657330

ANNEX 1 – INDICATIVE OUTLINES OF THE BACKGROUND PAPER AND THE POLICY BRIEF ON ‘THE SOURCES OF INFALTIONARY PREASSURES IN SUDAN’

The background paper and the policy brief will comprise the sections described in Annex 1A and Annex 1B, respectively. The sub-titles for the various sub-sections will be proposed by the consultant and adjusted to ensure that they capture the key messages from a given section.

ANNEX 1A: Indicative outline of the background paper

Proposed study title: ‘Sources of inflationary pressures in Sudan: analysis of the external, structural and policy factors’

Approximate length of the report: Not more than 35 pages

Outline (indicative)

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Introduction

Chapter 2: Review of relevant literature

2.1 Theoretical litrature review

2.2 Empirical litrature review

Chapter 3: Methodology

Chapter 4: Results and analysis

Chapter 5: Policy recomendations and options

References

Annexes

ANNEX 1B: Indicative outline of the policy brief

Proposed policy brief title: ‘Policy options for addressing inflation in Sudan’

Approximate length of the report: Not more than 5 pages

Outline (indicative)

Section 1: Introduction

Section 2: Past policy responses to inflation in Sudan

Section 3: Trends and drivers of inflation in Sudan

Section 4: Policy options

References

Annex 1: Key macroeconomic indicators in Sudan