REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Eastern Africa Regional Development and Business Delivery Office (RDGE)

Longonot Road Plot 11, Upper Hill, P.O Box 4861 -00200, Nairobi – Kenya

Email : p.nyakota@afdb.org

1. The African Development Bank hereby invites International Individual Consultants to indicate their interest in the following assignment: “Support to the preparation of East Africa Regional Diagnostic Note”.

Context and Justification :

The Bank’s current approach to regional integration is stipulated in the Regional Integration Strategy Framework (RISF 2018-2025) which is further implemented via the Regional Integration Strategy Papers (RISPs) for each of the Bank’s regions. The RISF is anchored on 4 pillars: infrastructure connectivity, trade and investment, and financial integration. The RISF is currently undergoing a mid-term review (MTR), whose key findings will be taken into account in preparing the EA-RISP CR. The Regional Integration Strategy Paper for Eastern Africa 2018-2022 (EA-RISP 2018-2022) was approved by the Board in October 2018. It is anchored on two pillars namely: (i)) regional infrastructure development for competitiveness and transformation; and (ii) Strengthening the policy and institutional frameworks for market integration, investment and value chains development. The RISP Mid-Term Review (MTR) finalized in 2021 maintained the strategic pillars while boosting measures to recover from the pandemic and implement the AfCFTA Agreement and the Horn of Africa Initiative. Since the approval of the EA-RISP in October 2018, several key developments have taken place in Eastern Africa, which will have a bearing in the regional integration agenda. These include: COVID-19 Pandemic, Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), Horn of Africa Initiative (HOAI), Desert Locusts, and Increased debt vulnerabilities.

• As of March 2021, the multinational and regional portfolio comprised 97 projects with 121 financing instruments worth an approved amount of UA 3.1 bn. This portfolio represents 33% of Eastern Africa’s total portfolio, worth UA 9.3 bn. The sovereign portfolio comprises 85 projects worth UA 2.5 bn, while the non-sovereign portfolio contains 12 operations worth UA 646 m. The sovereign multinational and regional portfolio is concentrated in five countries: Tanzania (19.9%), Kenya (18.3%), Ethiopia (15.7%), Uganda (15.3%), and Rwanda (10.7%). The transport and power sectors are the largest, accounting for 56% and 25% of the portfolio, respectively ;
• In the context of the preparation of the new 2023-2027 Regional Integration Strategy Paper for Eastern Africa (EA RISP 2023-2027), the Bank’s East Africa Business Development and Delivery Office (RDGE), plans to recruit an international consultant to support the team for the preparation of the Bank’s Regional Diagnostics Note (RDN). The RDN will inform the preparation of the new EA RISP 2023-2027.

2. Objective of the assignment : The main objective of the assignment is to carry out an in-depth analysis of the socio-economic dynamics of East Africa in order to inform the preparation of a new regional integration strategy document (RISP) of the East Africa for the period 2023-2027. More specifically, the RDN provides a comprehensive macroeconomic analysis of the region and sectoral assessments. It examines the opportunities and challenges of each sector, as well as the contribution and dynamics of each sector in terms of GDP and job creation. Based on these analyzes, the RDN determines the main priority reforms that the region needs to close performance gaps and maximize progress in achieving inclusive and green growth as well as the sustainable development goals.

3. Scope of the work :

Under (i) the general guidance of the Director General of RDGE, the Director of ECCE, and the Director of RDRI, and (ii) the supervision by the Team in charge of the East Africa (EA) RDN, the Consultant shall carry out the following Tasks/Activities :

1. Review the Issues paper for the preparation EA RISP Completion Report, the Mid-Term Review of EA RISP 2018-2022, and other related documents, the various sector/thematic briefs prepared by sector experts in the region, undertake stock taking of the different regional knowledge products from various sources, identify and fill the information gaps; and based on these prepare the EA RDN, prepare the PowerPoint Presentation (PPP); Matrices of Comments; Management Briefs; etc., related to the RDN ;
2. Draft, for discussion, the RDN based on the Bank’s Regional Integration Strategy Framework (RISF) and annotated formats and guidelines for the preparation of CSPs and RISPs, as well as existing best practice RISP/CSPs, to be used by the Consultant as guidance. The RDN will be based on existing analytical work as well as sector/thematic analytical work (so-called “sector/thematic Briefs”) to be prepared by the Banks sector departments. The RDN shall discuss in detail the regional integration strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and challenges, inclusive and green integration dimensions, and areas of maximum potential impact of Bank’s intervention :

• Identify any data gaps and collect from reliable sources (AfDB, World Bank, IMF, EU, Trademark Eastern Africa, for example), for the preparation of the RDN. Review the sector briefs, provide comments indicating gaps in information, and in cases where such briefs are not available, prepare draft briefs using desktop research to fill the information gaps ;
• Identify and propose key indicators that will be employed to monitor implementation progress and evaluate impact results due to the proposed recommendations and, if possible, in a cross-country and cross-regional comparative ways. Also ensure that the RDN maps the priority reforms to the gaps identified in the RMCs and RECs in the region, with a focus on the reforms needed to achieve the Bank’s High-5s, and prioritizes the recommended solutions to the gaps identified. Prepare annexes with a clear tabular and chart presentations to support the main findings of the report based on data provided by AfDB statistics and other sources as needed ;
• Undertake timely revisions of the report as and when comments are received from the core team and the peer reviewers. Once the draft is presented to the Regional team, the Consultant will also revise the document by considering the concerns and comments from the Regional Team and other relevant colleagues ;
• The consultant will use the Bank’s annotated formats for the RDN, and analyze, among others, the following points :

1.  Recent (i.e. since 2017) political, economic and social trends and developments, and the outlook for the next 2 to 3 years. Among others, topics to be included in this analysis are macroeconomic (fiscal, monetary, debt, convergence, etc.) developments; public financial management, economic/financial governance; private sector, business environment and competitiveness, financial sector; progress on regional integration, trade and industrial development; regional infrastructure development (energy, transport, water, ICT); green growth/climate change, inclusive growth, fragility; etc. This also includes an overview on policies and reforms undertaken by the regional economic institutions and governments in the aforementioned areas ;
2. Analyze developments in the region’s institutional setting/arrangements and strategic frameworks, including the regional integration plans as agreed by COMESA, IGAD, and the EAC, considering the extent to which implementation is being undertaken at a national level ;
3. Highlight the region’s main strengths and opportunities, weaknesses and challenges that need to be addressed/supported by the new RISP.

3. Qualifications and Experience : The consultant must be fluent in English and should have the following qualifications:

• A minimum of a Master’s degree, preferably Doctoral degree, or its equivalent in Macroeconomics, Development Economics, International Trade and Finance, Development or Public Policy related field; A PhD is preferred ;
• A minimum of fifteen (15) years of research, consultancy or advisory services on economic policies including preparation of diagnostics noted, strategy and policy papers, investment climate assessments, trade policy and trade facilitation in African countries, preferably in Eastern Africa;
• Substantial work experience with/in government and/or an international development institution in the relevant focus areas stated in the Terms of Reference;
• Strong analytical skills, communication and self-organizing skills, as well as timely delivery of assignments;
• Strong understanding of the macro and microeconomic issues, assessment of general and sector level productivity issues, undertaking strategic documents and background papers;
• Excellent verbal and writing skills in English.
• Previous experience in the preparation of a regional diagnostics note and similar products is an advantage.

4. Eligibility, deliverables and duration of the assignment :

• The eligibility criteria, the establishment of a shortlist and the selection procedure must comply with the Bank’s rules and procedures for the recruitment of consultants. Please note that the interest expressed by a consultant does not imply any obligation on the part of the Bank to include the consultant in the shortlist.
• The service, under this assignment, will involve consultancy services for a period of 4.5 months. Remuneration will be in accordance with Bank rates and the qualification and experience of the consultant. The successful consultant is expected to start the work as soon as the selection process is completed, and the contract signed.
• As part of his/her assignment, the consultant will provide the following deliverables:
• An « Issues Paper” highlighting the key issues to be investigated more thoroughly (including total factor productivity, prioritization of the region’s most pressing development constraints based on an appropriate methodology, etc.), data/info gaps, framework for consultations to bridge data/info gaps, etc., to be delivered 4 weeks after signing the consulting contract ;
• A full draft of the RDN to be submitted 1 and a half months after the validation of the ;
• The first draft of the final RDN which incorporates the comments made by the peer reviewers on the draft of the complete NDP, to be submitted 2 weeks after submitting the draft of the full report ;
• The second and final draft of the final RDN which incorporates comments from the Country Team and the ECCE Department, to be submitted 2 weeks after receiving all comments on the first draft of the RDN.

Interested individual consultants can obtain further information at the address below during Bank working hours: 8:00 am to 5:00 pm.

5. Expressions of interest accompanied by an updated Curriculum Vitae (CV) must be received only by email to the addresses provided below no later than November 29, 2021 at 5:00 p.m. (Nairobi time) and specifically mentioning : International Consultant for the “ Support to the preparation of East Africa Regional Diagnostic Note “

For the attention of :

Ms. Pauline Nyakota

African Development Bank

East Africa Regional Development and Business Delivery Office (RDGE)

Khushee Towers Longonot Road Plot 11, Upper Hill

P.O. Box 4861-00200 Nairobi, Kenya

Email : p.nyakota@afdb.org

6. Establishment of the shortlist : A shortlist of three to six individual consultants will be established once the expressions of interest and the updated CV have been received. The shortlisted consultants will be evaluated on the following criteria based on their updated CVs. Shortlisted candidates will be invited to send in proposals and comments on the assignment.