Avis d’appel d’offre pour l’étude sur la mobilisation des ressources par l’adoption et la mise en œuvre de politiques d’exportation optimales en Zambie

Avis d’appel d’offre pour l’étude sur la mobilisation des ressources par l’adoption et la mise en œuvre de politiques d’exportation optimales en Zambie

REQUEST FOR EXPRESSIONS OF INTEREST (EOI)

FOR INDIVIDUAL CONSULTANTS

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

The Study on Resource Mobilization through Adoption and Implementation of Optimal Export Policies in Zambia (COZM).

 

 

1. The Country Office of the African Development Bank (“the Bank”) has the broad objectives of promoting development through economic and social sector initiatives ;

2. The Bank hereby invites qualified Individual Consultants to indicate their interest in conducting research on – “Resource Mobilization through Adoption and Implementation of Optimal Export Policies in Zambia” ;

3. The study is important in informing the Bank Group’s Economic Sector Work in addressing the critical issue of resource mobilization through implementation of optimal export policies for revenue generation in Zambia. Again, it is pertinent to indicate that the study is urgently needed against the backdrop of the country’s tight fiscal situation, high external debt, and the need to have a more resilient and sustainable economy ;

4. Interested Consultants shall provide information through their CV on their qualifications and experience demonstrating their ability to undertake this Assignment (documents, reference to similar services, experience in similar assignments, etc.) ;

5. The eligibility criteria, the establishment of a short list and the selection procedure shall be in conformity with the Bank’s Procurement Policy Framework for projects financed by the Bank Group, October 2015 Edition, available on the Bank Website at http://www.afdb.org ;

6. The estimated duration of services is Twelve (12) weeks. The estimated starting date is 10^th April 2022. The services will be delivered from Lusaka, Zambia ;

7. Interested Individual Consultants may obtain further information at the email address below during the Bank’s working hours: from 09:00 to 17:00 hours ;

8. Expressions of interest must be received by email below no later than 1^st April 202022 at 17:00 hours local time to agola@afdb.org (Dr. Nathaniel Agola) and specifically mentioning “EOI for the study on Resource Mobilization through Adoption and Implementation of Optimal Export Policies in Zambia”.

 

ANNEX: TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)

The Study on Resource Mobilization through Adoption and Implementation of Optimal Export Policies in Zambia.

 

Background :

Currently, Zambia faces dire macroeconomic instability that requires immediate intervention targeting both medium and long-term restoration of fiscal and macroeconomic health. Zambia’s public debt stock has risen rapidly due to growing financing needs and funding requirements for infrastructure. This situation has been recently aggravated by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The economy has been negatively impacted by the measures to contain the spread of the pandemic, and the disruption of supply chain network. Notably, the pandemic has heightened the immediate need for more resources to be channeled into health and social sector, and other measures aimed at securing the livelihood of the most vulnerable in society.

The government mobilization of resources, predominantly through non-concessional foreign borrowing to fund its widening fiscal deficits has led to high debt levels since 2013. Zambia’s total public debt rose rapidly to 104% of GDP in 2020, and 105.3% in 2021 up from 35% in 2014. External debt stood at 77.3% of GDP (2020), while domestic debt and budget expenditure arrears stood at 26.5% of the GDP at the end of August 2020. Debt service costs had reached 30% of total government revenues in 2020, leaving very limited fiscal space for the government to fund immediate, medium, and long-term needs. It is notable that all the four indicators, large fiscal deficit (11.7% against the target of 5.5% in 2020), high debt servicing cost (30% of government revenues), weak growth and deteriorating exchange rate, and weak debt carrying capacity with foreign exchange reserves’ import coverage declining from 4.7 months in 2015 to 1.6 months in 2020 all confirm the unsustainable debt position. Fiscal deficits as a share of GDP are projected at 6.7%, 6.3%, and 5.2% in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively and this will have to be mainly funded through domestic resources, and to some extent grants. The use of the IMF Special Drawing rights USD 1.33 billion to shore up the international reserves to 5.5 months coverage in 2022 by the Zambian authorities is only a short reprieve on the financial situation of the country. Again, it is envisaged that after Zambia concludes an agreement over the request to the IMF for an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in 2022, the country will have to commit itself to austerity measures mandated under the policy program, while also heavily anchoring its fiscal policy on strong domestic resource mobilization. Strengthened resource mobilization capacity is therefore a key plank in the government strategy to restore fiscal health and macroeconomic stability. Mobilization of sufficient tax and non-tax revenues is therefore crucial to sustaining investments in the health, education, infrastructure, and other key sectors. The Government remains committed to enhancing domestic mobilization which had dropped to 18.0% of GDP in 2020 to about 21.2 percent of GDP over the medium-term while ensuring equity, fairness in the tax system and a stable business environment.

The need to assist the government through optimization of export trade policies to enhance resource mobilization has been identified as one of the most viable options over both medium and the long-term perspective. Zambia’s commitment to international trade and active promotion of functional regional integration offers good prospects for trade expansion. The country actively participates in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa-East African Community-Southern African Development Community (COMESA-EAC-SADC)-Tripartite Trade Area and has established one stop border posts and trade centers at all its major borders to expedite intra-regional and international trade. In 2018, Zambia signed the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and adheres to the AfCFTA rules requiring least developed countries (LDC) to achieve 90% liberalization in five years after ratification. However, the country secured a 15-year phase-down period on account of specific development challenges it faces.

As a landlocked country, Zambia is dependent on efficient border management, competitive transport systems, good transport infrastructure to facilitate trade with its neighboring countries. Zambia, therefore, continues to invest in physical infrastructure, including transport and energy infrastructure linking the country to neighboring markets. According to the 2019 World Bank Doing Business Index, Zambia’s score on ‘trading across borders’ has remained unchanged from 2018, ranking 153 out of 190

countries. However, within COMESA, Zambia, is an outlier, alongside Kenya and Rwanda with strong performance on the trade integration indicator (Africa Regional Integration Index Report, 2019). Zambia scores well with 0.951 on trade integration, and 0.829 on productive integration. However, it has dismal performance on macroeconomic and infrastructure integration tenets. A key factor inhibiting deeper regional integration remains the high cost of transport between countries within the Southern Africa region, in addition to non-tariff barriers and institutional capacity bottlenecks.

This study takes a pragmatic approach targeted at yielding policy recommendations, identifying specific key economic sectors, specific value chains and activities, in addition to funding mechanisms required for implementation of optimal export policies that Zambia could successfully implement to enhance revenue mobilization from exports to the regional export markets. Invariably, the context within which policy recommendation and implementation is envisaged is that of the regional intra-African trade and regional integration.

Rationale for the Study :

7. Zambia has great potential to increase revenues from exports to regional market given the central geographical location. Zambia’s total exports were estimated to be USD 7.8 billion in 2020, of which USD 2.2 billion (28.2 percent) was received by Africa. Compared to 2019, total exports increased by 11.0 percent in 2020.

Zambia’s exports to Africa increased by 12.6 percent during the same period, and the potential to increase trade volume and revenues remains immense.

1. Enhancing export revenues will serve medium and long-term resource mobilization while helping in building the capacity to diversify and make the economy more resilient to shocks ;
2. The adoption of optimal export policies and implementation of the value chains strategy in regional trade by Zambia is well aligned with the Bank Group regional integration strategy and also with priorities of Southern African Development Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, and African Continental Free Trade Area (SADC, COMESA and AfCFTA). There is considerable scope to bring new impetus to value added trade in goods and services in the region ;
3. The study will contribute positively to the direly needed diversification of the Zambian economy away from dependence on the mining sector ;
4. The promotion of regional trade has valuable synergy to the Zambian government and the Bank Group investments in cross-border transport infrastructure and trade facilitation capacity in the region ;
5. The adoption and implementation of optimal export trade policies and focus on value-added regional trade will also lead to the creation of quality jobs ;
6. The optimal export trade policies will also help Zambia to build regional competitiveness and raise productivity, which are basic requisites for the country to transition to a stable medium income country.

Ultimately, when completed the study is expected to lead to applicable policy recommendations, identification of specific economic sectors marked for intervention, specific value chain activities, and identification of plausible funding mechanism for the activities.

Objective :

The objectives of the study are :

• Analyse the current export policies and regulatory regimes including operational procedures governing cross border trade in goods, services, and movement of persons along the border between Zambia and regional countries and provide appropriate recommendations ;
• Examine and identify the economic sectors in which Zambia could have competitive advantages, the gaps in the capacity to exploit the comparative advantages, identification of specific measures to undertake to tackle the constraints ;
• Analyse and identify specific value chains in which Zambia could develop competency, both within the medium and long-term perspective, the main goal being that of enhanced mobilization of resources from trade ;
• Analyse and identify plausible funding mechanism for the main sectors and value chain activities.

Scope of Work :

The scope of work for this consultancy would include :

• Analysis of both the national export policies, procedures, regulatory framework, and practices within the context of regional intra-African trade, and then identify the gaps with the goal of making pragmatic policy recommendations ;

• Analysis and identification of economic sectors and specific value chain activities that could optimize resource mobilization through export revenues for Zambia ;

• Assess and review the current funding mechanisms for the identified sectors and possible value chain activities, identify the gaps and recommend both traditional and innovative funding mechanisms that could be deployed to actualize the activities that must have the following attributes :
  • Great potential for superior revenue generation from exports ;
  • Zambia has the requisite conditions or comparative advantage or latent potential to develop the specific sector and value chain in the context of regional and intra-African trade ;
  • Possible synergy between the identified sectors, activities, and value chain to maximize resource usage ;
  • Practically possible to explore and find funding for the activities and value chains recommended ;
  • Provide a clear analysis and identification of which entities will coordinate and implement the specific activities and value chain interventions.

Methodology :

The consultant shall consult the necessary stakeholders in Zambia, who shall include officials at the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry, other government administrators and relevant institutions, and the private sector. While adhering to best practice the consultant shall be guided by the present methodologies used by the AfDB or institutions of a similar caliber. Where necessary, the consultant shall engage the Bank’s staff in consultations as may be relevant to her/his work. The methodologies employed must guarantee that both the resulting Report would be conventional and acceptable to the Bank.

The Consultant should put more emphasis on the practical outcomes of the study even though the theoretical underpinnings of the analysis can be quickly referenced. To ensure alignment of the policy recommendations, sectors value chain activities, and funding mechanisms with the government development

aspirations, reference to key documents such as the 8^th National Development Plan, and the Banks Group relevant strategy documents would be necessary.

Outputs – Deliverables :

1. Report of the Study complete with recommendations ;
2. Proposed Action Plan for the Bank on the recommendations proposed.

Schedule of Deliverables :

Output

Content/Requirement

Location

Date

of

Submission/Deli

very

The Study will commence with a kick-off meeting in between the

Study Kick off meeting

Consultant and the Chief Country Economist, and the bank Group

Lusaka/Virtual

Day 1 (start of

Team for further clarification on the objectives, methodology and

assignment)

outputs of the Study

The  inception  report  shall  be  made  after  reviewing  relevant

Submission

of

Inception

documentation.   The inception reports shall describe the conceptual

framework to guide the consultant in this assignment.  The inception

One week after

Report

reports set outs details of the methodology and an outline for the Report

Lusaka/Virtual

start of the

and some of the issues that will be included in different sections of the

assignment

report and also indicate the key deliverables.

The Bank will review the Inception Report and make comments within

Two weeks after

Bank

Comments

on

start of the

one  week  after  submission.  The  comments  will  be  taken  into

Lusaka/Virtual

Inception report

assignment

consideration while undertaking the study

Consultations & Review of

policies

and

regulatory

The Consultant will proceed to Zambia to conduct the consultations

Lusaka/Virtual

Two weeks field

frameworks

as

per

the

with the stakeholders and data collection

work

requirements

of

the

assignment

The consultant will submit a draft final report of the preliminary

Six weeks after

Submission of Draft Report

Lusaka/Virtual

start of the

findings.

assignment

The consultant will organize a workshop in the field (Lusaka, Zambia)

to present preliminary findings as well as allow key stake holders to

provide input to the report.

Seven weeks

Field workshop

The Consultant will be working towards attaining consensus from the

Lusaka/Virtual

after start of the

government  on  the  recommendations  of  the  study,  particularly  on

assignment

policies, implementation procedures, and funding mechanisms to be

adopted.

Presentation

of

the

Draft

The consultant is expected to make a presentation to RDGS/COZM, and

9 weeks after

Final  Report

and  Action

the consolidated report and Action Plan incorporating input from the

Lusaka/Virtual

start of the

Plan

field workshops.

assignment

A Final Report indicating the agreed upon policies, implementation, and

12 weeks after

Submission of Final Report

start of the

Final Action Plan will be submitted to COZM.

assignment

Duration of the Consultancy :

The assignment will be for a period of 12 weeks.

Liaison and Reporting Arrangements :

The tasks shall be performed under the overall supervision of the Chief Country Economist (COZM) who is the task manager, and all communications be copied to the Country Manager.

Qualifications of the Consultant :

The consultant shall be expected to demonstrate sufficient capacity to undertake the tasks and shall have extensive experience in undertaking assignments on trade policy, resource mobilization, and finance, and industrial development facilitation issues etc.

The consultant shall have at least a Master’s degree in International Trade, Economics, Business Administration, Engineering, Policy Analysis and Management, Finance or any other related discipline and shall have at least 8 years of proven relevant work experience in an agency with development cooperation orientation and/or an International Organization (World Bank, International Monetary Finance, African Development Bank, United Nations Development Programme or other UN Agencies, European Union, etc.) or bilateral aid agency in the research, design, management (planning and implementation) and the analysis of reports and/or application of policy recommendations.

The consultant shall be competent in the use of standard software applications (MS Word, Power Point and EXCEL) and have excellent communication skills in English. Other necessary competencies for these assignments shall amongst others include :

• Demonstrable analytical capacity for tasks that require qualitative and quantitative rigour ;
• Concise and excellent writing skills ;
• Familiarity with Results Reporting of AfDB operations including logical framework analysis ;
• Samples of past assignments may be requested.

Proposals :

The information provided in the technical proposal should clearly illustrate the Consultant’s understanding of the Zambia resource mobilization issues, the objectives of the study, methodology, and the scope of work. The Technical Proposal may briefly address areas where the proposed study may require updating.

The Financial Proposal should be provided as a lumpsum fee.

Language :

The language of the requested services is English.

Confidentiality :

All documents which are part of this RFP will be treated as Confidential.

Responsibilities for the Bank : 

The Bank will pay for a fixed lump sum fees.

Reference :

The bidder is requested to quote the DACON reference number when submitting its proposal.

Responsibilities for the Bank :

The Bank will pay a fixed lump sum fee. Travel cost will be limited to economy class.

Schedule of Payment :

The schedule of payments is specified below:

Submission of the Inception Report	25%
Approval of Draft Final Report	50%
Approval of Final Report	25%